It’s rare for MLB front offices to listen to players, rather than owners or executives, when setting a budget for the upcoming season and deciding which free agents to chase. The Dodgers ought to be the exception to that rule.
Shohei Ohtani, the two-way superstar, has led the Dodgers to back-to-back World Series ever since signing in the 2023-24 offseason. Ohtani sacrificed millions up front to chase titles with the Dodgers. His success is tied to theirs in the form of deferred cash down the road, which makes Ohtani an extreme case of a baseball player who ought to have his front office’s ear.
The perks of Shohei Ohtani’s contract and what it affords the Dodgers
Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million deal with the Dodgers that pays him just $2 million AAV for the first decade in LA. After that, Shohei will make $680 million in payments deferred from 2034 to 2043. While the Dodgers will eventually have to pay up, Ohtani’s smaller AAV for the first 10 years in Los Angeles — of which there are still eight seasons — gives Andrew Friedman the option to go even further all-in for a third straight World Series title.
The Dodgers have already expressed a willingness to build around Ohtani, signing friends Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki from NPB, and adding some of MLB’s finest in Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Teoscar Hernandez. The list goes on and on, and should expand even further this winter.
How the Los Angeles Dodgers could break baseball
The Dodgers still have a current payroll of over $240 million. That takes players leaving via free agency into account, per spotrac. The luxury tax threshhold is expected to sit around $244 million, but that hasn’t stopped the Dodgers from spending before. Remember: Unlike in the NFL, baseball’s luxury tax system isn’t a strict salary cap. However, it does penalize teams that consistently go over the tax. Here’s how the penalties shake out.
| Payroll | Surcharge |
|---|---|
| $264 million – $284 million | 12 percent |
| $285 million – $304 million | 42.5 percent |
| $305 million + | 60 percent |
To make matters worse, any club that exceeds the surcharge for an extended period of time is taxed at a greater rate. The entire purpose of the luxury tax is to create competitive balance, even though that system will be under question yet again during the next round of CBA negotiations between MLB and MLBPA.
| Years over the luxury tax | Tax Penalty |
|---|---|
| First year | 20 percent |
| Second consecutive year | 30 percent |
| Third consecutive year or more | 50 percent |
Free agent targets
The Dodgers should (and will) be active once again in free agency. Their biggest needs include the outfield, starting rotation and most definitely the bullpen. That’s where Ohtani comes in, as he could (theoretically) play all three of those positions, though he hasn’t stepped foot in the outfield for quite some time.
In the interest of preserving Ohtani, having a top-flight bullpen is paramount, as well as a deep starting rotation and a lineup that can provide for him when on the mound. For the sake of this exercise, let’s say LA is genuine about acquiring Kyle Tucker. The Dodgers would have to pay $400 million, or perhaps hope Tucker is open to a deferred contract similar to Ohtani.
For rotation help, the Dodgers need a mid-tier starter. Yamamoto and Snell have the top of the rotation covered, but the latter is also subject to injury, much like Glasnow. Someone like Chris Bassitt, the 36-year-old starting pitcher formerly of the Toronto Blue Jays who started 31 games last year for the AL pennant winners makes a lot of sense.
The Dodgers bullpen was suspect to say the least in the postseason, even when Sasaki moved into the closer role. If LA is able to save money on a mid-tier starter like Bassitt, don’t be surprised if they spend bigger in the bullpen. Edwin Diaz, who the Mets could come to regret letting leave in the first place, would thrive saving games for Ohtani.
Dodgers dream target: Kyle Tucker
Dodgers likely targets: Chris Bassitt, Edwin Diaz
Trade targets
The Dodgers tried to trade for Guardians star Steven Kwan just before the deadline last season, but failed to part with the right pieces. MLB insider Bob Nightengale detailed exactly how close the Dodgers were to acquiring Kwan.
“They were badly trying to acquire Cleveland Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan, believing he would be the perfect fit to replace Michael Conforto in left field. But after hours of negotiations, were left empty-handed. The consolation prize was Washington Nationals outfielder Alex Call. Everyone in baseball thought they were getting Kwan,’ one GM said,” per Nightengale.
In so many ways, Kwan would still be a great fit for the Dodgers. Assuming they’re unable to sign Tucker — which is likely in this economy, despite Ohtani’s wishes — Kwan is a more affordable option who already has two All-Star appearances and four Gold Gloves under his belt. He’d be an ideal upgrade over Michael Conforto, who was a major letdown during his time in Dodger blue.
Not to mention, he could hit right behind Ohtani in the Dodgers lineup if necessary.
