Quite the year for Gavin. By far his best so far. Set career highs in innings pitched, ERA, fWAR, GB%, and walks (lol).
That’s not to say, though, that this year came without struggle. He struggled mightily through the first month and a half of the season. He posted an ERA north of 5 in that timespan. After a rough 4-run outing at the end of April against the Twins, he posted a 2.64 ERA. Fourth-best in MLB, second in the AL. So, what changed?
Through April, Gavin was running a 53.3% usage rate on his 4-seam. To put it delicately, that pitch was getting murdered. Hitters registered an xwOBA north of .400 on it, and it returned only a measly 21.7% whiff rate. From May through the end of the season, his fastball usage never eclipsed 45% again. In response, Gavin amped up the usage of his cutter, taking it from a 1.4% usage in April to 14% in May, and to a season-high 30.9% in June. In those two months, Gavin registered a 2.91 ERA. Pretty steep improvement from his March/April mark.
Over time, as hitters started respecting the cutter, the results on his 4-seam improved dramatically. From June through August, his 4-seam never registered an xwOBA above .350. As his fastball’s results got better, his cutter usage started to dip. In September, when his cutter usage fell below 10%, his fastball results got worse… again. .493 xwOBA in September.
The one thing to note is that, all year, he dramatically overperformed his expected results. Outside of May, he overperformed his xwOBA in every month. Despite a sparkling ERA of 3.06, his FIP and xERA were both north of 4. Presumably helping overperform those numbers was his consistent ability to limit damage with runners on. He had the 3rd highest LOB% (left on base%) among qualified starting pitchers in MLB. With runners on base, he allowed an opponent batting average of .183, 5th lowest in MLB. Also contributing to his high FIP was his walk rate. Gavin led the league in BB/9, walking 83 batters. Despite often having runners on base, his extremely deep (and strong) pitch mix allowed him to limit damage in dangerous situations. Per Fangraphs, he had 4 pitches with a Stuff+ rating above 100. His 103 total Stuff+ was good for 19th in MLB, 14th in the AL.
Gavin succeeded the most, as I’m sure most of you know, against left-handed hitters. Among all qualified MLB starters, he registered the lowest opponent AVG in MLB against LHH — .163. That mark was 10 points lower than the pitcher behind him: Yoshinobu Yamamoto. His issues primarily came against RHH, against whom he surrendered a .262 AVG and a .750 OPS (.596 vs. LHH).
Against RHH, Gavin is primarily fastball/sweeper, throwing those two pitches a combined 64% of the time. The sweeper is fantastic against RHH — .209 xwOBA, 46% whiff%, with an avgEV of 88.7mph. That’s great. Keep throwing that. The fastball, though… not great. .407 xwOBA, 20.1% whiff%, avgEV of 91.8mph. Obviously, he needs to figure out a way to throw a fastball, regardless of whether or not it’s his 4-seam, against RHB. The cutter and sinker both yielded better results against RHB. On the cutter, .392 xwOBA (still bad, but better), average launch angle of 1. On the sinker, .325 xwOBA, average launch angle of -1.
Something interesting to note, pointed out by fellow CTC writer Matt Seese, is the change in Gavin’s pitch mix against right-handed batters after May 22. Prior to May 22nd, Gavin was exclusively fastball/sweeper against righties, throwing those two a near combined 86% of the time. The results were awful. .351 xwOBA, 43.1% hard hit%. After that day, he completely changed his mix to righties. He threw four different pitches more than 10% of the time — sweeper (20.1%), 4-seam (14.7%), cutter (12.7%), sinker (11.5%). His curve just missed the 10% cut-off, but he threw it 7% of the time to righties. As his cutter & sinker spiked in usage, his fastball’s results dramatically improved. In June, August, and September (when the cutter & sinker were being thrown the most), Gavin’s fastball yielded its best results. xwOBA’s of .273, .245, and .019.
I think, in order for Gavin to take another step forward in 2026, he’ll need to improve upon the tweaks he made down the stretch this past season. The team needs to prioritize working with him on maintaining his cutter, sinker, and sweeper usage and command against RHH next season. Obviously, he should be focusing on getting his sinker inside to righties. The sweeper should, ideally, be focused on being thrown on the outer third. If he can improve his results to righties, maintain a similar degree of success against lefties, and even marginally improve his command, he could legitimately be a Cy Young candidate next year. That’s easier said than done, but I have full faith in the Guardians coaching staff’s ability to get the most out of him.
Last thing…
Take a look at the date on that announcement.
