es, this is another story about the Boston Red Sox and their potential interest in Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber.
And sorry to say it, but yes, those rumors linking Schwarber to the Cincinnati Reds are legitimate concerns for Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.
“I believe that the Reds do have a shot at signing Schwarber, though I certainly wouldn’t label them as the favorites,” MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports. “Cincinnati is looking for a big bat in the middle of the lineup, and if Schwarber has any interest in playing close to home (he’s from nearby Middletown, Ohio), the Reds are the only team that can offer him that.
“It will, in all likelihood, come down to money as it does with most free agents, but GABP is a great hitters’ park and should be attractive to a slugger such as Schwarber,” Feinsand writes. “Cincy is highly unlikely to be the highest bidder, but if the offer is competitive, I don’t think it’s impossible.
“Based on conversations I have had, I would put their chances around 15%, which is a [little bit] higher than I would have said a month ago,” Feinsand concludes.
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Money Talks
“The problem for Cincinnati is that the Philadelphia Phillies almost certainly will offer Schwarber more money,” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.
“Schwarber, who turns 33 on March 5, is probably looking at his last big contract. He is unlikely to give the Reds much of a hometown discount, if any at all. Depending upon how free agency plays out, big-market teams such as the New York Mets and Boston Red Sox also could enter the mix,” Rosenthal adds.
“Schwarber, as much as he loves playing for the Phillies, probably is intrigued, too. But in free agency, sentiment rarely carries the day. Money matters most, and it’s difficult to foresee the Reds coming up with enough,” Rosenthal notes
Based on a roundup of contract predictions, Schwarber carries a price tag of nearly $30 million per year.
MLB Trade Rumors projects Schwarber will return to Philadelphia on a five-year, $135 million contract.
In September, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale predicted Schwarber “should command a four-year deal in excess of $120 million.”
In terms of numbers, Feinsand was in the same ballpark as Nightengale.
“Among those we spoke to, the consensus is that Schwarber should land a deal of four or five years for at least $30 million per season,” Feinsand reported.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel polled 20 scouts, executives and agents to get a sense of Schwarber’s value in free agency.
“The average of all 20 projections is 4.3 years, $131.8 million, for a $30.7 million average annual value (AAV),” McDaniel reported. “The median projection of those deals is $119 million.”
Schwarber was runner-up for National League MVP after leading the league with a career-high 56 home runs.
The three-time All-Star spent part of the 2021 season in Boston as a midseason acquisition and helped the Red Sox reach the American League Championship Series.
