Andrew Vaughn’s Milwaukee Breakout Was Real – But ZiPS Isn’t Buying It Yet
Andrew Vaughn looked like a different player in Milwaukee. After a sluggish start to 2025 with the White Sox, he arrived in the Cream City and flipped the switch – turning into the kind of hitter scouts had envisioned since his college days.
He wasn’t just solid; he was a problem for opposing pitchers. But as the baseball world looks ahead to 2026, one of the most respected projection systems in the game is tapping the brakes.
ZiPS – the long-trusted projection model from FanGraphs – isn’t sold on Vaughn’s late-season surge. Despite the eye test and the numbers he posted in a Brewers uniform, ZiPS sees more of the same from Vaughn in 2026. And by “same,” we’re talking about the pre-trade version – a league-average bat with flashes of pop, but not the kind of consistent threat Milwaukee might need in the heart of the order.
Let’s break it down.
Vaughn’s Tale of Two Halves
Vaughn’s 2025 season was split cleanly in two – and not just by a change of scenery. With the White Sox, he struggled to find any rhythm.
But once he landed in Milwaukee, everything clicked. In a Brewers uniform, Vaughn slashed .308/.375/.493 with 9 home runs, 46 RBI, and a 141 OPS+.
That’s not just a hot streak – that’s middle-of-the-order production on a team that thrives on maximizing every inch of value.
But when you zoom out and look at his full-season line, the shine fades a bit: .254 average, .307 OBP, .411 slugging, 14 home runs, and 65 RBI. Solid, sure.
But not game-changing. And that’s the version ZiPS is betting on – not the guy who mashed for two months in navy and gold, but the one who’s been closer to average over a larger sample size.
What ZiPS Sees for 2026
ZiPS isn’t projecting a total collapse, but it’s certainly not projecting a breakout either. The system sees Vaughn hitting under .250 with a 20% strikeout rate and some on-base challenges. The power is still expected to be there – think 20+ home runs – but the overall profile leans more toward “serviceable thumper” than “lineup anchor.”
For some clubs, that’s perfectly fine. But for the Brewers, it’s a little more complicated.
This is a team that doesn’t have the luxury of swinging and missing on key bats. They can’t just plug a $150 million free agent into the lineup if things go sideways. Milwaukee lives on margins – and if Vaughn turns out to be just “okay,” they’ll have to find that missing punch somewhere else.
The Brewers Way: Betting on the Outlier
Here’s the thing about projections: they’re built on data, not belief. ZiPS is doing its job by leaning on the full body of work.
But the Brewers have made a habit of proving models wrong. They’ve consistently found value where others didn’t look twice.
And Vaughn – if he continues to look like the hitter he was in the second half of 2025 – could be their latest success story.
He doesn’t have to be a superstar. He just needs to keep being that guy – the one who showed up in Milwaukee and immediately looked like he belonged in the middle of a playoff-caliber lineup.
If he does, the Brewers won’t care what ZiPS says. They’ll take the outlier every time.
