Trevor Rogers’ 2025 Breakout: How a Strength Rebuild Turned Him Into the Orioles’ Unexpected Ace

When Trevor Rogers took the mound for the Orioles for the first time on May 24, few could’ve predicted what was coming. By season’s end, the 27-year-old lefty had carved out a 1.81 ERA, stacked up 103 strikeouts over 109.2 innings, and notched 9 wins in just 18 starts.

That kind of production doesn’t just come out of nowhere-and it certainly doesn’t go unnoticed. Despite missing the first two months of the season, Rogers still earned Cy Young votes.

Not bad for a guy many thought was a reclamation project at best.

Let’s rewind to the 2024 trade deadline. Baltimore sent promising prospects Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to Miami in exchange for Rogers-a move that raised some eyebrows around Birdland.

At the time, Rogers was coming off a string of injury-plagued seasons and hadn’t looked like the same pitcher who flashed serious potential back in 2021. Fast forward a year, and it’s safe to say the Orioles got more than they bargained for.

Rogers didn’t just bounce back-he leveled up.

The Secret to the Surge? Strength, Simplicity, and a Whole Lot of Sweat

Rogers’ transformation didn’t happen by accident. It started in the offseason, when he made a pivotal decision to train at Driveline’s Arizona facility.

What the staff found there was surprising-even to Rogers himself. According to Driveline’s internal strength metrics, Rogers was testing so low that their models projected him as an 83 MPH pitcher.

That’s not major league velocity. That’s bullpen catcher velocity.

But instead of panicking, Rogers saw it as a breakthrough. “It was like, ‘thank God,’” he said.

“I was thankful we found a problem.” That mindset-seeing a weakness as an opportunity-set the tone for what would become a career-altering offseason.

With a new strength program tailored to his body and past back issues, Rogers went to work. The results were immediate and meaningful.

His average fastball velocity jumped from 91.9 MPH to 93.1 MPH-right in line with the league average for left-handed starters. But more importantly, the velocity came easier.

That freed him up to focus on the finer points of pitching: command, sequencing, and staying consistent through his delivery.

The ripple effects showed up across the board. His walk rate dropped from 10% in 2024 to just 6.9% in 2025.

He wasn’t just throwing harder-he was pitching smarter. And the advanced metrics back it all up.

His expected ERA (xERA) sat at 3.36, his expected batting average against (xBA) was a stingy .227, and his strikeout rate held firm at 24.3%. Those are the numbers of a frontline starter.

For comparison’s sake, free-agent lefty Ranger Suárez posted nearly identical expected stats-and he’s one of the most sought-after arms on the market.

A Glimpse of 2021-Only Better

Back in 2021, Rogers looked like a budding star in Miami. He was touching 94.5 MPH and striking out hitters with ease.

But injuries and inconsistency derailed that trajectory-until now. The 2025 version of Rogers might not have quite reached those peak velocity numbers yet, but he’s more efficient, more durable, and possibly even more dangerous.

And with another full offseason of strength training ahead, it’s not outlandish to think he could reclaim that 94+ MPH heat-and then some.

Credit Where It’s Due

This kind of turnaround doesn’t happen without the right environment. Rogers put in the work, no doubt.

But the Orioles’ development staff-and their willingness to trust in a pitcher coming off multiple down years-deserve a nod as well. Baltimore has quietly built a reputation for identifying undervalued arms and helping them rediscover their best selves.

Rogers is the latest-and perhaps the most dramatic-example of that.

What’s Next?

It’s not just that Rogers was good in 2025. It’s that he looked like a pitcher who can lead a rotation-who can take the ball in October and go toe-to-toe with the best in the league. And for a team like the Orioles, who are building toward sustained contention, that’s a massive development.

If this season was Rogers just getting back to average strength, the Orioles-and their fans-have every reason to be excited about what a fully optimized version of him might look like. The stuff is there.

The command is back. The confidence is growing.

And in a city that’s hungry for postseason baseball, Rogers might just be the arm that helps get them there.

Birdland has found its ace. And his name is Trevor Rogers.