The Orioles are staring down a critical offseason, and there’s no sugarcoating it – they need to add not one, but two legitimate starting pitchers if they want to get back into the postseason picture in 2026. After a disappointing 87-loss campaign in 2025, standing pat simply isn’t an option.

The rotation, as it stands, isn’t built to compete. Tomoyuki Sugano and Zach Eflin didn’t deliver what Baltimore needed, and any replacements can’t just be lateral moves – they need to be upgrades.

Real ones.

Dean Kremer, ideally, slides into the back end of the rotation, not the middle. That’s not a knock on Kremer; it’s just a reflection of where he fits best.

As for the other in-house options – Grayson Rodriguez, Brandon Young, Cade Povich – they’ve shown flashes, but none have proven they’re ready to anchor a rotation that’s supposed to be contending. You can’t build a playoff rotation on hope and potential.

Now, here’s where things get tricky. This year’s free-agent class of starting pitchers?

It’s thin at the top. There’s talent, sure, but there’s no clear-cut ace without a few question marks attached.

In a different offseason, some of these names might not even be in the conversation for a team looking to make a serious leap. But the Orioles don’t have the luxury of waiting for a better class.

The time to act is now.

Enter Dylan Cease.

Cease, who turns 30 in late December, might not be the perfect pitcher – but he might be the right one for Baltimore. Over the last five seasons, few starters have been as durable.

Cease has made at least 32 starts every year since 2021. That kind of reliability is rare in today’s game, and it’s exactly what the Orioles lacked in 2025.

Only two of their starters topped 20 starts last season. Injuries, inconsistency, and underperformance plagued the rest of the staff.

Cease, meanwhile, just keeps taking the ball every fifth day.

That said, durability isn’t the whole story. Cease’s results have been a rollercoaster.

He was dominant in 2021 and 2022 – even finishing as the Cy Young runner-up in ’22 – but followed that up with a rocky 2023 (4.58 ERA, 1.418 WHIP). After being dealt from the White Sox to the Padres, he rebounded in 2024, only to struggle again in 2025, posting a 4.55 ERA across 32 starts and just 168 innings.

That’s not exactly the kind of workload you want from your top arm – fewer than 5.5 innings per start puts pressure on the bullpen, and that’s an area where the Orioles already have work to do this winter.

But here’s why Cease still commands attention – and likely a massive contract.

The underlying metrics are strong. His strikeout rate remains elite – 11.5 K/9 in 2025, tops in the league.

He’s still throwing gas, averaging 97.1 mph on his fastball. And his slider?

Still one of the nastiest in the game. Statcast data shows his whiff rate, strikeout rate, and chase rate have all held steady over the years.

Even in a down year, the stuff is there. That’s what keeps teams intrigued – and what will likely earn him a big payday.

According to projections, Cease is expected to land a seven-year, $189 million deal. That’s $27 million a year, taking him through his age-36 season.

It’s a big commitment, no doubt. But it also reflects just how valuable a high-ceiling, durable starter is in a market short on surefire arms.

The big concern with Cease – and it’s a fair one – is that he doesn’t pitch deep into games. That’s not just a personal quirk; it’s a potential problem, especially for a team like the Orioles that also needs to shore up its bullpen. If your top starter can’t get through six innings consistently, and your bullpen isn’t built to cover that gap, you’re setting yourself up for some long nights.

Still, the Orioles are in a spot where they have to swing big. There’s no perfect pitcher on the market.

Framber Valdez might be a steadier option, but Cease offers the biggest upside. And for a team that’s been building toward a window of contention, this isn’t the time to play it safe.

They don’t need the perfect pitcher – they need the best one they can get right now.

Baltimore’s front office has done a lot right in recent years, assembling a core of young talent that’s exciting and competitive. But to take the next step, they need arms – and not just any arms.

They need someone who can take the ball every fifth day and give them a chance. Cease, volatility and all, fits that bill better than anyone else on the board.

The Orioles don’t have time to wait for the ideal scenario. They’re in win-now mode. And that means taking a shot on Dylan Cease.