The Houston Astros enter the Winter Meetings with a glaring problem. Their starting rotation lacks depth and reliability, having missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Hunter Brown can’t carry this staff alone.
Astros Starting Rotation Depth Chart Shows Major Concerns
Brown emerged as the ace in 2025, posting a 12-9 record with a 2.43 ERA and 206 strikeouts. He ranked second in the American League in ERA. But he’s the only dependable arm in this group.
Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2024 and made just eight starts in his 2025 return. He finished with a 4.62 ERA and 1.27 WHIP across 37 innings. His durability remains uncertain.
Arrighetti regressed badly in 2025 after winning AL Rookie of the Month honors in 2024. He allowed six home runs and walked 20 batters across 35.1 innings while posting a 5.35 ERA. McCullers finished 2-5 with a 6.51 ERA and 1.81 WHIP at age 32, making him an unreliable option.
Weiss signed a one-year deal after posting a 2.87 ERA in Korea, while Alexander is a journeyman entering his age-33 season. Blubaugh and Murray remain on the 40-man roster but lack major league experience.
Framber Valdez’s Departure Creates Massive Void
Valdez declined Houston’s $22.025 million qualifying offer and will command a multi-year deal exceeding $220 million as a free agent. He posted a 2.91 ERA with 169 strikeouts in 2024, anchoring the rotation with consistency the Astros can’t replace internally.
The organization has only exceeded Lance McCullers Jr.’s $17 million average annual value twice with starters under owner Jim Crane. Justin Verlander received contracts with $33 million and $25 million AAVs, suggesting Houston lacks the financial commitment to retain Valdez.
The front office identified rotation stability as the top offseason priority. They need at least one proven veteran starter who can deliver innings. Prospects like Miguel Ullola could compete for spots, but none have established themselves at the major league level.
Free agents like Ranger Suárez and Lucas Giolito represent realistic targets. Suárez posted a 3.20 ERA with 151 strikeouts in 2025 but will command roughly $26 million annually. Giolito returned from Tommy John surgery with a 3.41 ERA and might fit Houston’s mid-market approach better.
Brown’s breakout season can’t mask the roster’s fundamental problems. The Winter Meetings start this week, and general manager Dana Brown must find answers. Another playoff-less season in 2026 would be unacceptable for a franchise that won seven straight division titles before last year’s collapse.
