The Toronto Blue Jays signed Cody Ponce to a three-year, $30 million deal following his MVP season in Korea. That’s the richest contract ever for a KBO returnee. The question is whether a 31-year-old pitcher with one elite season deserves this kind of money.

Ponce’s Contract Dwarfs Previous KBO Returnee Deals

Toronto committed $30 million over three years to Ponce, pending a physical. At $10 million annually, the deal doubles what comparable players received. Erick Fedde signed for two years and $15 million after winning the KBO MVP in 2023 with similar numbers. Josh Lindblom dominated Korea for two full seasons with a 35-7 record, but got just $9.125 million over three years from Milwaukee.

The disparity continues down the line. Drew Rucinski pitched four strong seasons in Korea and received only a one-year, $3 million deal from Oakland. Merrill Kelly, who became an Arizona ace, initially signed for two years and $5.5 million before later earning a two-year, $18 million extension.

MLB Trade Rumors projected Ponce would land two years and $22 million. The Blue Jays exceeded that by $8 million and added an extra year. No other KBO returnee has approached this financial commitment, especially not one with Ponce’s track record.

The Numbers Support Both Optimism and Concern

Ponce’s 2025 season was historic. He went 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA and struck out 252 batters in 180⅔ innings. He set a KBO record with 18 strikeouts in a nine-inning game. His 36.2% strikeout rate led the league while walking just 6% of batters.

The improvements are tangible. His fastball velocity jumped from 93.2 mph in 2021 to 95.5 mph in Korea, touching 97-98 mph regularly. He developed a devastating changeup with a 46% whiff rate and added a cutter to his arsenal. These aren’t minor adjustments—they represent a complete overhaul of his pitching profile.

Toronto recently succeeded with Eric Lauer, who posted a 3.18 ERA after signing following a brief KBO stint. That success story likely influenced this decision. If Ponce delivers even league-average innings, the $10 million annual value looks reasonable in today’s market.

The concerns are legitimate, though. Ponce posted a 7.04 ERA in his last MLB season in 2021. He struggled in Japan for three years with a 4.54 ERA before finding success in Korea. The KBO is considered roughly AA to low AAA level, below Japan’s quality.

His career features about 180 innings of excellence surrounded by roughly 260 innings of struggles across MLB and Japan. He’s entering his decline years at 31, with the contract extending through age 33. Historical data suggests only 40-60% of KBO returnees succeed in MLB. Josh Lindblom flamed out spectacularly after his big contract, posting a 5.16 ERA before being released.

Toronto is betting that 180 innings reflect genuine development rather than a career-year fluke. The velocity gains and new pitches provide legitimate reasons for optimism. But if Ponce reverts to his previous form, the Blue Jays will have roughly $20 million in dead money. The contract is generous by any measure, and only his performance will reveal whether Toronto’s faith was justified.