The Baltimore Orioles head into the offseason with one glaring priority: bolstering a starting rotation that lacked both depth and durability in 2025. And while there are several ways they could address that need, one decision seems to already be taking shape – Zach Eflin likely won’t be part of the 2026 picture.

Eflin’s season was derailed almost from the jump. A right lat strain in April put him on the shelf early, and when he returned, it wasn’t for long – low back discomfort landed him back on the injured list in August.

All told, the veteran right-hander made just 14 appearances, logging 71.1 innings with a 5.93 ERA and serving up 18 home runs. For a pitcher who once thrived on command and pitch efficiency, those numbers paint a tough picture.

Now entering his age-32 season, Eflin’s trajectory is trending in the wrong direction. The Orioles brought him in from Tampa Bay last summer, sending three prospects to the Rays in the process – a move that, in hindsight, hasn’t yielded much return. While the hope may have been that a change of scenery could help Eflin rediscover his form, injuries and declining effectiveness made that a tough bet.

Across the league, teams are being warned to tread carefully. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel summed up the risk in no uncertain terms: Eflin is becoming more of a pitch-to-contact arm, and not in the good way.

Without consistent velocity or pinpoint command, he’s relying on soft contact and favorable outcomes – a strategy that’s left him vulnerable far too often. As McDaniel put it, if Eflin can’t hold his velocity and locate consistently, the outcome could be an early-season release before the All-Star break.

That’s a sobering possibility for any team, but especially for an Orioles club that needs to be smarter – and more aggressive – with its pitching moves this winter.

Baltimore’s rotation was stretched thin in 2025, and while there are reasons for optimism heading into next season, there are just as many question marks. Trevor Rogers finished the year on a high note, showing flashes of the potential that once made him a top prospect.

Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells are expected back, but both are coming off significant injuries. And Rogers, for all his promise, has never thrown more than 133 innings in a season.

That’s why depth isn’t just a luxury – it’s a necessity.

Re-signing Eflin wouldn’t be the worst move the Orioles could make, but it would be a roll of the dice. Given the injuries, the declining stuff, and the lack of recent production, it’s hard to see him as anything more than a back-end option – and even that comes with risk.

After missing the postseason in 2025, there’s pressure in Baltimore to shift gears. The fan base wants to see a more aggressive approach, especially when it comes to the starting rotation.

That means targeting arms who can eat innings, miss bats, and stay healthy. Whether that comes through free agency, trades, or internal development, the Orioles can’t afford to patchwork their way through another season on the mound.

Zach Eflin may have once been a steady presence in a rotation, but at this point in his career, the Orioles need more certainty than he can offer. The focus now has to be on building a staff that can carry them deep into October – not just survive until the break.