Luis Robert Jr. Trade Rumors Heat Up as White Sox Weigh Market Realities

For the better part of the last three seasons, the Chicago White Sox have made national headlines more for who they’re trading away than for anything happening on the field. Now, even a ceremonial jersey gift to the Pope has done more to put the team in the spotlight than their actual play. But as we move into the heart of the offseason, the old narrative is back in full force – and this time, it’s Luis Robert Jr. sitting at the center of the trade rumor mill.

According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Robert ranks 21st among the top players who could be moved this winter. More strikingly, Passan gives him a 60% chance of being dealt – one of the highest among notable names on the list. Only Brendan Donovan (Cardinals) and Jeff McNeil (Mets) are seen as more likely to be traded, and even they come with unique circumstances that go beyond the typical baseball calculus.

That 60% projection is a significant shift from where things stood just a few months ago. At the July trade deadline, Robert was widely expected to stay put. Both the White Sox and rival front offices seemed to agree that a deal wasn’t happening – not because of a lack of interest, but because the two sides couldn’t bridge the gap between Robert’s tantalizing upside and his troubling track record.

On one hand, the White Sox still view Robert as a potential star. They’ve acknowledged the risks – the injuries, the inconsistency, the platoon splits – but they’ve also backed their belief in his ceiling by picking up his $20 million club option for 2026. That’s not a move you make unless you think there’s a chance the value will pay off.

On the other hand, many teams around the league don’t see the same player. They see a gifted center fielder with elite tools who’s been unable to stay healthy and whose offensive production has become increasingly erratic.

His .690 OPS in August before suffering another soft tissue injury didn’t help his case. For some front offices, Robert looks more like a high-risk rental than a cornerstone piece.

That disconnect has been at the heart of the White Sox’s dilemma for years now. Trading a player like Robert isn’t just about getting value – it’s about finding the right fit.

Teams are always in the market for pitching; there’s always room in a rotation for a high-upside arm. But with position players, especially ones like Robert who come with very specific strengths and weaknesses, the trade partner has to have a clear need – in this case, a strong defensive center fielder who can live with streaky offense and struggles against right-handed sliders.

Still, Passan’s report suggests that something has shifted – not necessarily in the White Sox’s willingness to deal Robert (they’ve been open to it for a while), but in how teams are now viewing him. For one, the contract situation is more straightforward.

There’s no more guesswork about whether the Sox will exercise his option. Robert is now, plainly, a one-year rental at $20 million with a club option – a manageable, defined cost for a player with his ceiling.

Then there’s the free-agent market, which hasn’t exactly overwhelmed teams with center field options. Cody Bellinger is the biggest name, but he’s no longer a full-time center fielder and likely needs his workload managed to keep his bat productive.

Harrison Bader had a bounce-back season and brings solid defense, but he’s older than Robert. Cedric Mullins matched Robert’s WAR last season (1.3, per FanGraphs), but his defensive metrics took a nosedive.

And after that? It’s a mix of reclamation projects and fifth outfielders – not exactly the kind of competition that makes Robert’s trade value plummet.

That context matters. In a thin market, Robert stands out – not because he’s a sure thing, but because he’s the highest-upside center fielder available.

That alone makes him a compelling trade chip, even if there’s risk baked in. The teams Passan lists as potential fits – the Giants, Mets, Reds, and Phillies – have all been linked to Robert going back to last offseason.

The Mets, notably, have already cycled through Mullins and Bader with limited success. If they’re still in the mix, it’s a sign that Robert’s profile continues to hold intrigue despite the setbacks.

Of course, there’s no guarantee a deal gets done. Even with a 60% likelihood, that’s still a coin flip.

The White Sox are operating from a position where they can afford to wait for the right offer – or at least, they’re choosing to act like they can. Shedding Robert’s salary would open up some flexibility, especially with his $5 million raise for 2026 looming, but the front office still seems intent on extracting real value in return.

Until the trade market takes clearer shape – or until someone like Byron Buxton becomes available – Robert remains the most intriguing center field name on the board. He’s a player whose tools still flash star potential, but whose recent seasons have raised more questions than answers. For the White Sox, that makes this offseason less about whether they can trade Robert, and more about whether anyone is willing to pay for the possibility that he finally puts it all together.

And if not? Well, there’s always next week’s draft lottery – and maybe another papal jersey presentation – to keep the White Sox in the headlines.