Louis Varland or Jeff Hoffman?

The Toronto Blue Jays got to Game 7 of the World Series off the strength of their bats and bullpen. Eric Lauer, Jeff Hoffman, Louis Varland, Seranthony Dominguez, and Mason Fluharty all performed well in the playoffs. Chris Bassitt, usually a starter, also impressed coming out of the bullpen. Hoffman may have to bear the burden of the only home run he surrendered in the postseason. Sadly for Hoffman, that single home run was a blown save in Game 7, potentially costing them the World Series on a single pitch.

Elsewhere in the MLB landscape, high-profile relievers have been dropping like flies in free agency. The latest batch to fly off the shelves includes two linked to the Blue Jays: Brad Keller and Luke Weaver. The Blue Jays have also been making a few trades, one was a pitcher swap, while the other gives a disappointing arm a new opportunity. Additionally, Toronto could strike up a reunion with a surprising candidate.

On social media, one fan has proposed that a new reliever be given the closer role. While the rest of Blue Jays nation shakes in their boots at the idea of the Los Angeles Dodgers getting one of Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette, let’s look at this proposal.

Toronto Blue Jays Fan Theory on Jeff Hoffman’s Replacement

On December 16th, one Blue Jays Fan account on X wrote a post about a potential in-house Hoffman replacement.

“If the Blue Jays miss on a top-tier closer this offseason, Louis Varland deserves a real look,” the user wrote. “Elite velocity, strong K-rate, 5-pitch mix, and he dominated in the playoffs when it mattered most. Also under team control through 2030.”

Varland had a good season split between the Minnesota Twins and Blue Jays. In 2025, he pitched in 75 games, recorded 75 strikeouts, posted a 2.97 ERA, and a 1.20 WHIP, along with 22 holds, in 72 2/3 innings. He also surrendered six home runs.

Louis Varland vs Jeff Hoffman

At first glance, it seems like a strange suggestion. If Hoffman is going to be supplanted by anyone, it’s more likely to be Tyler Rogers over Varland.

While his Savant data might not blow you away, there are some nuggets to consider. For starters, three of his five pitches have a positive Run Value score.

According to the Savant site, “Every pitch is assigned a run value based on its outcome (ball, strike, home run, etc.). The sum of all of a player’s contributions across a season, or multiple seasons, measures his overall batting or pitching run value.”

Varland’s three positive Run Value pitches are his four-seam fastball (2), curveball (3), and sinker (2). Conversely, Hoffman’s positive Run Value pitches in 2025 were his slider (4) and sinker (1). His fastball’s value was -6, in large part due to the 10 home runs hit off his fastball pitches.

Since becoming a full-time reliever, the 2025 season is the only time Hoffman has surrendered more than six home runs in a year. Could 2025 be a blip? Not likely. He surrendered 15 home runs in 2017, 21 home runs in 2019, and 12 in 2021. The only difference with those seasons is that Hoffman was a full-time starter in 2017 & 2019.

Is the home run thing a big enough concern for the Blue Jays to name a new closer? Perhaps, but even if they do, the Rogers or Yimi Garcia is more likely to be given an opportunity there over Varland.

Blue Jays Have Missed Out on Top Free Agent Closers

The Blue Jays have missed out on the top free agent relievers this year — which is the only reason they would ever consider an in-house replacement.

Most recently, Keller signed with the Philadelphia Phillies, while Weaver joined the New York Mets. However, the Blue Jays were linked to many of the bigger names as well.

Edwin Diaz was connected to Toronto before signing a three-year pact with the Dodgers. The Atlanta Braves came and scooped up Robert Suarez shortly after the Diaz signing.

Devin Williams, Emilio Pagan, Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton, Raisel Iglesias, and Kenley Jansen were all linked to the Blue Jays to various degrees. Ultimately, they all decided to pursue opportunities elsewhere. Or, they weren’t high enough on Toronto’s list to be their top target in the reliever market.

Pete Fairbanks is the only remaining top closer left on the market. However, his health concerns, particularly one that flares up in cold weather, should be enough to keep Toronto looking elsewhere.

It’s more likely that Toronto trades for another closer to compete with Hoffman than hand the 9th inning over to Varland.